The international rally behind Ukraine is certainly something to behold. Yet despite the courage of the Ukrainian people behind their equally brave president, what we are most likely to witness in the upcoming weeks, months and years will present to us a brutality of war not seen in decades.
Most alive in the West today are only familiar with wars in which the dominating power of the United States military tends to win battles quite decisively and, by historical standards, with minimal civilian casualties. This is in large part because of the US’s superior technology of guided-munitions that have near-pinpoint accuracy. The United States and the West also place an enormous priority on limiting collateral damage out of deference to domestic public opinion as well as the necessary goodwill of the local populations in the center of conflict.
The Russians traditionally have no such priorities. Brinkmanship is said to be a typical Russian tactic, and not just a Soviet one. Putin’s soldiers are employing non-guided-munitions that guarantee ancillary destruction outside of their intended targets, and are likely to increase their use. Most analysts believe that soon “Russia will turn to criminal siege tactics.”
While the American military, like the Israeli military, tend to drop leaflets over targets before an impending strike in order to warn civilians to evacuate the area, the Russian military is known to surround civilian areas and seal off exits to prevent civilians from escaping battle zones. The point is to inflict mass death to crush the spirit of any resistance.
And a resistance this will soon become, as in all likelihood Russia will take tacit control of Ukraine within 30 days. A brutal occupation is sure to commence, and the people of Ukraine are unlikely to follow the way of Vichy France. A insurgency will endure so long as it receives military and financial support from the West. And according to US and British analysts, this insurgency is likely to last 10-20 years, ending with a Russian defeat but also a failed Ukrainian state right outside the border of NATO.
M. Danko
March 4, 2022
Terse.blog