For years Germany, the fourth largest economy in the world, has played both sides of the American-Russian standoff, both during and after the Cold War. Germany has refused to militarize, choosing instead to rely on America’s nuclear umbrella while at the same time staying on Moscow’s good side. The Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline was but the latest symbol of drushba (friendship) between the two as Germany continued to draw 55% of its gas and 45% of its oil from Russia. Blame their geographical proximity and Otto von Bismarck's famous line, “Never cut the link to St. Petersburg.”
This makes the sudden change in strategy by Germany, and for the matter much of the world, to turn on Russia in light of its invasion of Ukraine that much more extraordinary. So writes Josef Joffe in The Wall Street Journal:
Thus the last week’s cosmic surprise. Mr. Scholz, this peace-minded Social Democrat, unleashed a diplomatic revolution, turning Ostpolitik upside down. Nord Stream 2, which Ms. Merkel had defended to the last, won’t be completed, at least for now. Defense spending is to be jacked up to 2% of gross domestic product, a longstanding NATO goal honored consistently in the breach. Germany will buy advanced F-35 fighters from the U.S. It is joining the rest of the West with sanctions that bite. Mr. Scholz also wants to have two liquefied natural gas terminals to cut into Russia’s blackmail potential.Reluctant to provoke the bully in the Kremlin, Germany had always denied arms to Kyiv. Now it wants to send not only armor and antitank gear but also Stinger antiaircraft missiles that come with a sly message. In the 1980s these hand-held devices tilted the war in Afghanistan against the Soviets.Suddenly, all Bundestag factions save the pro-Russian Left Party, descendant of the East German Communists, project a mood change that defies past pliancy. Who would have thought Mr. Scholz would call for the “strength” that must “impose limits on Putin, the warmonger”? Propitiation was baked into Germany’s postwar soul. And not only the political class is fuming. Resentment reaches all the way to the soccer pitch where Schalke, a prominent club, has torn the Gazprom logo from its blue jerseys.Which raises a grating question: How long will the revulsion last—not only in Germany but in the U.S., Canada, Japan, Australia, even eternally neutral Switzerland, which has joined in? Realism suggests caution. A perfect welfare state like Germany is unlikely to max out defense spending overnight, especially while Covid is claiming billions of euros.Nor will Germany cut itself off from Russian gas, given that the country wants to save the planet by ditching coal in 2038. Its last three nuclear power plants are still slated to be decommissioned by year’s end. Will Germans really shiver for Kyiv next winter, or face down Mr. Putin, who has raised the angst level by placing his nuclear forces on alert? Will the West fully expel Russia from Swift, the global payments system? If so, Germany in particular can say goodbye to billions in Russian credit as long as the lockout lasts.The biggest question transcends Germany. It is posed by the Chinese joker in the game. Beijing shares with Moscow the ambition to topple the U.S. from its perch as the world’s No. 1. Pressed too hard, Mr. Putin will demonstrably move into Xi Jinping’s embrace to damage the U.S. Never mind that China and Russia are natural rivals. Right now, intensified collusion is a no-brainer. If China sidles up to Russia, the U.S. will pay the price of justice for Ukraine.If Mr. Putin does crush Ukraine, he will shift the balance of power against Europe, which breeds intimidation. And in any case, Europe will still have to live with Russia and won’t want to anger this ruthless giant forever. Baiting the bear isn’t a sustainable strategy. Geography is destiny.