‘You must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool’

Sometimes people make mistakes that are so horrendously destructive, that no one could ever live with the realization, no matter how innocent was the original mistake. And so it is better for one’s own wellbeing to simply never discover such a consequential error. This is what Megan McArdle calls an Oedipus Trap: mistakes that no one can live with.*

Ignaz Semmelweis Did Not Follow The Science™ and Became the ‘Savior Of Mothers’

The “Semmelweis effect” or “Semmelweis reflex” refers to the tendency to reject offhand any new scientific evidence, discovery, knowledge, or analysis that contradicts the dominant paradigm or perceived scientific consensus (I write “perceived” because in reality there is never a full consensus in any field of science, despite what the media or politicians may insist). In Robert Anton Wilson’s book, The Game of Life, Timothy Leary defines this reflex as “Mob behavior found among primates and larval hominids on undeveloped planets, in which a discovery of important scientific fact is punished.” Thomas Szasz referred to it as “the invincible social power of false truths.”

The Dangers of Prosecutorial Discretion

The following quotation is from a speech given by US Attorney General Robert H. Jackson to the Conference of United States Attorneys on April 1, 1940. It was recently excerpted in the “Notable & Quotable” section of The Wall Street Journal. The entire speech is available here.

World Health Organization Finally Admits Healthy Kids May Not Need Covid Vaccine

Experts at the World Health Organization have finally caught up with the data that’s been available for at least two years, admitting that healthy people under age 60 may not benefit from the Covid mRNA vaccines, adding that even “medium risk” people under the age of 60 need not get any further boosters. 

A GDP Illusion that Forecasts an Incoming Economic Storm

Recession denialists seized on third-quarter economic data showing GDP increased by 2.6 percent, averting an endemic case of cognitive dissonance that would be required to explain how three consecutive quarters of negative growth couldn’t mean recession. Unfortunately the latest report suggests the American economy is in a more dire state than is being acknowledged by the current political leadership. The positive economic growth of 2.6 percent is due largely to a spike in net exports which added 2.77 percentage points to the third-quarter results. The US trade deficit declined, but the actual number of exports remained steady, indicating that Americans are reducing their spending on overseas products while the rest of the world continues to consume American products.*